On Sunday the third of five IRONMAN regional championships kicks off in tropical Florianopolis, Brasil with a bevy of talented athletes making the trek to South America to vie for their share of $150,000 and 4000 KPR points.
The challenging yet fast race has once again drawn a deep international field. Late-May fitness levels and mild conditions will team up to offer IRONMAN fans a couple of smoking fast races in both men’s and women’s fields.
Last year we nearly saw the IRONMAN world record fall at the hands of Canada’s Brent McMahon, who took the lead on the bike and never looked back en route to finishing in an amazing 7:46.10. He’s back this year, and once again he has his hands full with last year’s second place finisher, Britain’s Tim Don, who is looking for his second ever IRONMAN victory.
Also set to give the Canuck a run for his money is 2014's winner Igor Amorelli, who gave McMahon some company on the bike last year before ultimately abandoning. Also set to vie for the Kona auto-qualification that comes with victory in Brazil are South Africa's Kyle Buckingham, veteran Andi Raelert from Germany, and Spain’s Eneko Llanos.
Looking deeper into the contenders, a few competitors may raise our eyebrows on Sunday, including Brazil’s Reinaldo Colucci, France’s Sylvain Sudrie, and Matt Charbot from the U.S.
The race will be fast from the gun with a cool-water wetsuit swim that typically yields mid-40s swim splits. Brit Harry Wiltshire, Aussie Paul Matthews, Amorelli, Barrett Brandon from the U.S., Charbot, and Sudrie will break away ever so slightly from the likes of Don, McMahon, and the other true contenders.
But once onto the bike, I expect to see all of the above athletes form a fast-moving freight train, with athletes such as Llanos and Raelert slipping just behind. Buckingham is another athlete, together with American Pat Evoe, Pedro Gomes, and Guilherme Manocchio forming a formidable chase pack. Once the athletes have covered the few challenging hills the course offers, I expect to see Amorelli, Don, and McMahon begin to prove themselves to be the strongest of the bunch.
On the run, I believe we’ll see some very fast run times, possibly besting last year’s record time of 2:42.52 set by McMahon. The hungry Brit Don will likely reign supreme. His form has proven to be solid this year, with wins at IRONMAN 70.3 Campeche and IRONMAN 70.3 Liuzhou. I believe that Don’s running prowess finally has the bike guns to go with it, and his IRONMAN mojo is just coming into its own.
How can the defending champion, near-world-record-setting McMahon be ruled out for the win? You knock him off his bike in March and force him to sit out of training while his injured hand heals. It is only this detour that steers him off course slightly, but still allows him the form to earn a close second place. Third place will go to Kyle Buckingham, having been in the mix all day long, with solid splits across the course of the event. Reinaldo Colucci will run his way to a somewhat surprising fourth place, while Matt Charbot will battle his way to fifth place.
On the women’s side, we have an extremely exciting battle shaping up. With now legendary American Linsey Corbin bringing five IRONMAN titles with her to Brasil, we have a possible favorite. However, up-and-coming talent Susie Cheetham from the U.K. brings a highly respectable IRONMAN racing record, including a top-ten at Kona and three podium finishes at the IRONMAN African Championship. She has yet to win at the 140.6-mile distance, but her timing could be right to change that.
Deeper down the start list, we have several interesting athletes who are primed to upset the favorites. From the U.S. Haley Chura arrives with very positive experiences in Brazil (having won the 2014's IRONMAN Fortaleza and IRONMAN 70.3 Brazil). She also comes in quite hungry after a year lost to injury.
Mareen Hufe from Germany took a solid second place at this event in 2016, and Gurutze Frades Larralde from Spain took third. Canada’s Kirsty Jahn has the run legs to do some serious damage on the marathon, and also on a solid progression is American Nicole Valentine who is fresh off a top-five performance at the IRONMAN 70.3 Peru, Lima five weeks ago.
Finally, Canada’s Magali Tisseyre, one of triathlon’s most talented athletes, is set to tackle her first IRONMAN. She comes in as a wildcard due to her newness at the distance, but her IRONMAN 70.3 pedigree puts her as a solid contender against any athlete on any day.
I expect the women’s race to be far more broken up, each coming with a varied set of skills. Haley Chura has a habit of leading out of the water, and I expect to see her do just that on Sunday. She will likely have the company of Celine Schaerer, but they will break away from the likes of Cheetham, Corbin, Hufe, Jahn, and Tisseyre.
Once onto the bike, I expect to see some fireworks as the more confident cyclists will try to wear down the legs of the quickest runners. Those who stick to their plans will be well served later in the day, especially as the runners twice tackle a testy hill on the marathon course.
Likely the winner will need to pedal sub-5 on the bike, and then to back it up with a low 3-hour marathon. We saw Liz Lyles ride 4:48 and Hufe was close to her in 4:51. I am certain that both Cheetham and Corbin have the wheels to put themselves in those zip codes, each with the experience and wherewithal to grit out a rough run on tired legs.
My best bet is to throw money on Cheetham taking the win, having been so close to victory so many times. Her sub 3:10 runs in Kona tell me she knows how to suffer off a tough ride, and that is just what she’ll need to do. Corbin will finish in second place, and will have likely been just a half step behind all day long, having lost a few minutes on the swim, and never really making them up. Maureen Hufe will take another podium, and will do so off a blistering low-4:50’s bike ride again. She is close to finding victory, but must keep knocking at the door before she’ll make her jump to the top step. Magali Tisseyre will be impressive in her debut performance, and she’ll grab a solid fourth place. Rounding out the top five will be the dark horse Nicole Valentine from the U.S.