The Memorial Hermann IRONMAN North American Championship in Texas is definitely living up to its championship designation this year. Hugely talented pro fields have migrated to The Woodlands for Saturday's big show. It's the last year for points in the qualification system for Kona, a factor that I think that has many pros wanting to grab some big points early to guarantee a spot to race in Hawai'i in October. With warm weather and calm conditions, those adequately prepared will shine in speedy fashion, while others will crumble on the exposed run course.
For the women, the day will undoubtedly start out with Lauren Brandon (USA) exiting the water first. Her lead on her nearest chaser will likely be massive. In fact, she has actually out swam the entire men's field on this course before. Meredith Kessler (USA) will likely be next in line, in her first race back since giving birth to her son, Mak. Dede Griesbauer (USA) and Michelle Vesterby (DEN) will be next, with a bigger gap to the remaining contenders. A few of my pre-race favorites—Melissa Hauschildt (AUS), Jocelyn McCauley (USA), and Tine Deckers (BEL)—will likely be almost 10 minutes behind Brandon out of the water
The bike ride will have plenty of big movers through the field as Hauschildt, McCauley, and Vesterby, plus fast cyclists Kimberly Morrison (GBA) and Jen Annett (CAN) move their way up through the field. I expect to see some low 4:40 bike splits from these women, and if a few of these cycling powerhouses get together, a sub 4:40 could be in the cards. Brandon will likely have company on the ride at some point, but it will be a question of who. Kessler has the ability to close the gap and a great chance of leading into T2. There will likely be four to six women off of the bike within 12 minutes of the lead including Brandon, Kessler, Griesbauer, Hauschildt, Vesterby, McCauley, and Deckers. The gaps within will be most important to look at, as the chase will be on with some stellar runners waiting to unleash on this hot but fast course.
It's hard to look past Hauschildt for the win here as her bike-run combo and world championship palmares will have her running towards the front of the race at some point. Kessler and Brandon will absolutely make her work for it, but Mel will be hard to hold off. Kessler has the toughness and experience to really fight for the win. Whoever gets nearest (or under) three hours though, will have this race in the bag. McCauley, and of course uber runner Jodie Robertson (USA) may set the running bar chasing from behind with Leslie Smith (USA) and Sarah Svensk (SWE) running through the field as well.
My final thoughts for top five are Hauschildt, Kessler, Robertson, Vesterby, and Brandon. There I said it. Let's see how wrong I am on race day!
The men's field has some talent as well and the race will be full throttle from the start gun. The swim will be blisteringly fast as long as someone doesn't mind setting the pace. There are about a dozen sub 50-minute swimmers in this group: Brent McMahon (CAN), Will Clarke (GBR), 2013 IRONMAN world champion Frederick Van Lierde (BEL), Paul Matthews (AUS), Ruedi Wild (SUI), and both Van Berkel's, Tim (AUS) and Jan (SUI). The big factor in this swim will be the gap that American Matt Hanson (pictured above) comes out of the water with, as well as Matt Russell (USA) and David Plese (SLO). The biggest threat however in that swim group will be American Andrew Starykowicz as he'll want to get into position to attack the bike ride straight away.
Once onto the bike ride, "Starky" won't have time to waste. One thing that will greatly effect the pace of the chase group will be (or should be) whether or not Hanson is in it. If he's chasing, that group should drive the pace to keep him isolated and chasing as long as possible—with such a large group, however, it will be hard to distribute the work. Starky will need a 15 minute (minimum) lead to have a chance at the win—a tall order with the size and caliber of the group. He will have a lead though, and we'll likely see a group of six to 10 holding strong near the end of the ride chasing him down.
I don't know how else to say it: This run is going to be lit. (Is that what the kids say?) This marathon is going to be humid and hot, and favor the pure runners here—many with low 2:40 marathons in them, and a few with sub '40s too. It's hard to look past McMahon to run away with this one from the front group, but if Van Lierde, Clarke, Wild, Matthews, and most importantly, Hanson, are around, he'll have his hands full.
Others to watch that will run through the athletes who blow up early on the run (and likely run into the top 10) will be Plese, Russell, and Justin Daerr (USA). My top five? It's going to be a run-off, and those with a top pedigree will rise to the top: McMahon, Hanson, Van Lierde, Tim Berkel, and Plese. And yes, I changed that list five times already. So, really anyone in that top group has a shot.